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EventComing up · 9 Decupdated Sun, 15 Nov 2026, 01:22 UTC

Fed decision, 9 December 2026

Markets price a December hike after the hot October CPI. How the largest Hyperliquid wallets sit in the S&P 500, gold, crypto and oil going into the Federal Reserve’s last meeting of 2026.

Statement
Wed 9 Dec, 14:00 New York time (19:00 UTC), the press conference after it
Rate now
3.75–4.00%, held on 28 October in a 10–2 vote
Meeting
8–9 Dec, with new economic projections
Expected
A hike, about 88% after the October CPI (CME FedWatch, 10 Nov). Bets on half a point rose after it (CoinDesk, 13 Nov)

What we know

  • The meeting dates, the time of the statement and that new economic projections come with it.
  • What markets price now: a December hike as the clear favourite after October’s CPI rose 0.4%, with the Dollar Index above 103 and the US 10-year yield at 5.125% on 13 November (below, each with its source and time).
  • Where the tracked whales stand in these markets right now (below, with the time of each number).

What we don’t know yet

  • Whether the Fed hikes by a quarter point, by half a point, or holds.
  • Whether the data due before the meeting change the odds.

The markets whale moves of $1M or more, numbers mark the timeline

Going into the Fed decision, whales lean short on gold, BTC and oil and are split on the S&P 500.

S&P 500
  • $7,497.3
  • Split 49% long
  • Whale Tide 34
  • $321M of whale money
  • −1.2% since 12 Nov
  • $13.6M toward shorts
$7,550$7,600$7,65006:0012:0018:0013 Nov06:0012:0018:0014 Nov06:0012:0018:0015 Nov234584 smaller moves not drawnStatement in 25 days$7,494.0
The five largest whale positions in S&P 500 now
WhaleSide and leverageSizeTo liquidationwithin 20%Recordof 100
Indigo Gannetlong 10×long 10×$50.8M7.7%28
Deep Marlinlong 20×long 20×$41.9M–86
Umber Marinershort 50×short 50×$37.8M4.8%82
Smooth Mistralshort 5×short 5×$25.8M–73
Patient Rorqualshort 20×short 20×$22.5M17.0%94
GOLDGold
  • $3,816
  • Short 62%
  • Whale Tide 32
  • $180M of whale money
  • −4.3% since 12 Nov
  • $2.9M toward shorts
$3,90006:0012:0018:0013 Nov06:0012:0018:0014 Nov06:0012:0018:0015 Nov2345Statement in 25 days$3,816
The five largest whale positions in GOLD now
WhaleSide and leverageSizeTo liquidationwithin 20%Recordof 100
Smooth Mistralshort 5×short 5×$28.5M–73
Grey Leviathanshort 4×short 4×$24.4M–88
Ancient Narwhalshort 5×short 5×$23.3M–93
Evening Manateelong 25×long 25×$18.4M13.5%20
Cold Monsoonshort 25×short 25×$12.6M13.6%98
BTCBitcoin
  • $62,676
  • Short 58%
  • Whale Tide 28
  • $1.51B of whale money
  • −14.9% since 12 Nov
  • $57.9M toward shorts
$65K$70K06:0012:0018:0013 Nov06:0012:0018:0014 Nov06:0012:0018:0015 Nov23452726 smaller moves not drawnStatement in 25 days$62.7K
The five largest whale positions in BTC now
WhaleSide and leverageSizeTo liquidationwithin 20%Recordof 100
Ancient Narwhalshort 5×short 5×$92M–93
Sunlit Frostlong 18×long 18×$77.2M17.2%21
Far Atolllong 3×long 3×$62.8M17.4%19
Grey Leviathanshort 5×short 5×$59.1M–88
Cold Meridianshort 25×short 25×$55.3M–89
WTIWTI crude oil
  • $87.62
  • Short 74%
  • Whale Tide 25
  • $75.3M of whale money
  • +3.5% since 12 Nov
  • $837K toward longs
$8606:0012:0018:0013 Nov06:0012:0018:0014 Nov06:0012:0018:0015 Nov2345Statement in 25 days$87.66
The five largest whale positions in WTI now
WhaleSide and leverageSizeTo liquidationwithin 20%Recordof 100
Cold Inletshort 20×short 20×$17.7M–66
Low Sextantshort 20×short 20×$16.3M–66
Northern Albatrosslong 3×long 3×$7.9M–62
Smooth Mistralshort 5×short 5×$5.9M–73
Quiet Glaciershort 20×short 20×$3.6M–85

Opened or addedClosed or trimmedFlippedLiquidatedLongShortTimeline entryDot size is the money, moves close together add up · moves of $1M or more

How to read this

Read it: Line up the whale dots with the numbered flags.

Won’t show: why a whale moved. A move close to an entry is timing, not a motive.

Other markets it touches

Other markets of this event, with their whale positioning now
MarketPriceMovesince 12 NovWhales leanshare of whale moneyWhale TideWhale moneyMovessince 12 Nov
XYZ100Nasdaq-100 style index$27,499−2.5%Short 55%47$203M314
ETHEther$1,729.00−15.7%Short 55%28$841M981
BRENTOILBrent crude oil$93.30+3.6%Short 57%21$234M34

Timeline newest first · 6 entries

  1. 6

    Scheduled

    Statement due at 14:00 New York time, followed by the chair’s press conference.

    Federal Reserve

  2. 5

    Analysis

    Close to four weeks before the statement, tracked whales hold $1.75B in BTC, 60% of it short, and $194M in gold, 59% short. In the S&P 500 they are split, $160M long and $150M short. In WTI they hold $78M, 74% short.

    WhaleRadar, from the Hyperliquid blockchain

  3. 4

    Official

    The Federal Reserve lists the meeting on 8–9 December with a Summary of Economic Projections.

    Federal Reserve

  4. 3

    Reported

    CoinDesk reports the US 10-year Treasury yield at 5.125% and the 30-year at 5.459%, with yields in the UK, France, Germany and Japan higher too.

    CoinDesk

  5. 2

    Reported

    CoinDesk reports higher odds of a half-point hike in December after the October CPI, with the Dollar Index above 103, its highest since April 2025.

    CoinDesk

  6. 1

    Reported

    CME FedWatch puts the odds of a December hike at about 88% after the hotter-than-expected October CPI, as Investing.com reports.

    Investing.com

Trade timing alone says nothing about what a trader knew. Many traders position before scheduled events. Times are when a move was first seen on Hyperliquid and when a report was first published.

Whale moves around the event $1M or more since 12 Nov, 01:24 UTC

The 15 largest of 4401 whale moves in these markets, newest first. The charts and the table above count all of them.

As of Sun, 15 Nov 2026, 01:24 UTC. Timeline entries link their sources. Whale moves and prices come from Hyperliquid, whale moves 15 minutes after Pro. Not financial advice.